Shopee Canada Russia-Ukraine situation

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Russia's withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Missile (INF) Treaty escalates the standoff with NATO.

1. Background of Russia's withdrawal from the missile restriction treaty

History of the INF Treaty: The United States and Russia withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Missile Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019, leaving no formal binding relationship between the two sides.

Latest Statement: The Russian Foreign Ministry announced that it would no longer "voluntarily limit" the deployment of intermediate-range and short-range missiles, and accused NATO of continued eastward expansion, threatening Russian security.

NATO Response: While not directly addressing Russia's call, NATO has recently strengthened its missile defense systems in Poland, Romania, and other locations.

2. Potential Military Impact

European Security Risks: If Russia deploys Iskander missiles (with a range of 500km+) in Kaliningrad or Belarus, they could reach several Eastern European capitals (Warsaw, Berlin).

NATO's Countermeasures: Possibly accelerating the deployment of land-based Tomahawk missiles (with a range of 1,600km+) in Germany and Poland to deter Russia.

Nuclear Shadow: Russia's deployment of tactical nuclear weapons (such as the Kinzhal hypersonic missile) warrants attention.

3. Geopolitical Gameplay

Dividing Europe: Russia hopes to exploit the "strategic autonomy" tendencies of countries like France and Germany to weaken NATO's unified stance.

The China Factor: Russia may seek Chinese support for military technology (such as missile early warning systems), but China is likely to remain cautious.

Paris Protests: Western Aid to Ukraine Faces Domestic Pressure

1. Core Demands of the Protests

Organizers: Led by the far-left party "France Unbowed" (Mélenchon faction) and some trade unions, they oppose the Macron government's "unconditional military aid to Ukraine."

Public Sentiment: High inflation (France's CPI is expected to remain above 5% in 2024), and some believe aid to Ukraine exacerbates its economic difficulties.

2. Widening Differences on European Aid to Ukraine

Country Latest Position Domestic Resistance

France pledges to provide Storm Shadow missiles, but faces joint opposition from the far left and far right

Germany approves a new batch of Leopard 2 tanks, but faces internal divisions between the Green Party and the Social Democratic Party

Hungary firmly opposes any aid to Ukraine, while the Orbán government openly criticizes EU policies

3. Chain Reaction on the Ukrainian battlefield

Western arms delivery delays: If protests spread, this could impact the delivery of key equipment, including F-16 fighter jets (expected to be delivered by the end of 2024).

Russian military psychological warfare: Exploiting divisions in European society to create a narrative of "the West abandoning Ukraine" and undermine Ukrainian military morale.

Key Variables in the Situation

NATO Summit (July 2024): Will aid to Ukraine be formally included in the collective defense clause (NATO Article 5)?

US Election: If Trump wins, he may pressure Ukraine to negotiate, further shaking Europe's resolve to aid Ukraine.

Russian Summer Offensive: Russian forces are currently advancing toward Kharkiv. A breakthrough would exacerbate Western "Ukraine fatigue."

Conclusion: Russia's missile deployment threat, resonating with anti-war sentiment in Europe, is creating a strategic environment unfavorable for Ukraine. The next six months may be a critical window for negotiation or escalation of the conflict.