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1. Core Data Overview

China's cross-border e-commerce market size in 2024: 2.63 trillion yuan (approximately US$364 billion), an 18.6% year-on-year increase (approximately 2.22 trillion yuan in 2023).

Strong growth in B2C (business-to-consumer) markets:

The market share has increased to 45% (approximately 1.18 trillion yuan), with a growth rate of 25%, far exceeding the 14% growth rate of B2B (business-to-business).

Major platforms: Temu, Shein, TikTok Shop, and AliExpress contribute the majority of the growth.

Export Market Distribution:

Europe and the United States dominate (the US accounts for 35% and the EU for 28%), but Southeast Asia (15%) and Latin America (10%) are experiencing growth rates exceeding 30%.

2. Growth Drivers

Overseas consumption downgrades: Under inflationary pressure, European and American consumers are turning to low-priced Chinese goods (such as Shein clothing and Temu small goods).

Explosive social e-commerce: TikTok Shop and Temu's "social interaction + low-price promotion" model is driving growth.

Supply Chain Advantages: China's manufacturing efficiency combined with digital logistics (such as Jitu International and Cainiao's overseas warehouses) supports low-priced, fast-moving consumer goods.

Policy Support: China is piloting "cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones" in many locations to optimize customs clearance, taxation, and payment processes.

3. Industry Trends

Intensifying Platform Competition:

Temu: GMV to exceed $60 billion in 2024, with North America accounting for over 50%.

Shein: Accelerating its transformation to a platform, incorporating third-party sellers, with GMV projected to reach $80 billion in 2024.

TikTok Shop: Leveraging the traffic advantage of short videos, daily GMV in Southeast Asia exceeded $100 million.

Logistics Model Upgrades:

Overseas Warehouse Penetration Increases: Over 30% of cross-border orders will be fulfilled through overseas warehouses in 2024 (compared to only 20% in 2023).

"Small Parcel Lines" Impacted: After the US eliminated its tax-free policy for orders under $800, the share of postal small parcels declined.

Compliance Challenges:

European and American Tariff Barriers: Following new US regulations, tariffs on some goods will increase by 8%-20%.

Data Security and Platform Regulation: TikTok faces data scrutiny in multiple countries, and Shein is under investigation by the EU for "ultra-low pricing."

4. Future Growth Points and Risks

Opportunities:

Emerging Markets: E-commerce penetration remains low in Southeast Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East, offering significant growth potential.

Global Brand Expansion: Brands like Anker Innovations and Huaxizi are rising through independent websites combined with a DTC (direct-to-consumer) model.

AI Empowerment: AI product selection, intelligent customer service, and dynamic pricing technologies are improving operational efficiency.

Risks:

Trade Protectionism: Europe and the United States may further tighten cross-border e-commerce tax and privacy regulations.

Supply Chain Relocation: Some companies are shifting production capacity to Vietnam and Mexico to circumvent tariffs.

Low-Price In-Volume Competition: Platforms like Temu and Shein are engaging in price wars that squeeze profits, increasing the pressure on small and medium-sized sellers.

5. Conclusion

China's cross-border e-commerce has entered a phase of "coexisting scale growth and transformation":

Short-term: B2C social e-commerce and fully managed hosting models will continue to dominate the incremental market.

Long-term: Branding and localization (overseas warehouses + compliant operations) are key to sustainable growth.

Policy and market dynamics: Companies need to dynamically respond to rising tariffs and logistics costs while seizing the dividends of emerging markets.