Shopee Cross-border e-commerce logistics costs may rise

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Analysis of the Impact of the US Suspension of Small Package Tax Exemptions on Cross-Border E-Commerce and Countermeasures

Core Policy Changes:

Effective Date: August 5, 2025

Adjustments: Elimination of the existing "de minimis rule" policy benefits for imported goods under $800

Tax Collection Methods:

▶ Postal Channel: 54% of the value of the goods or $100 per item, whichever is higher

▶ Commercial Express: Full tax rate based on the applicable HS code

Industry Impact Levels:

Direct Impact Secondary Impact

Low-price platform platforms such as Temu and SHEIN are expected to see a decline in their competitiveness, potentially accelerating their overseas warehouse expansion.

Sellers: Profit margins for low-priced goods are expected to shrink by over 50%, potentially triggering an industry shakeup.

Logistics Providers: Postal small parcel business volume is expected to decline by 30%. Demand for commercial express customs clearance services is increasing.

Cost calculation for a typical product (using a $30 garment as an example):

Original cost: $30 (including logistics)

After the new policy:

Postal channel: $30 + (30 x 54%) = $46.2 (+53%)

Commercial express (based on a 16% tax rate): $30 + (30 x 16%) = $34.8 (+16%)

Comparison of business response options:

Strategy Implementation Cost Effective Timeframe Applicable Business Type

Price Increase Immediate Low For sellers with brand premium capabilities

Switching to commercial express: 15-20% logistics cost increase 1-2 weeks For products with high timeliness requirements

Overseas warehouse stocking: 25% inventory cost per item 1-3 months For sellers of popular SKUs

Supply Chain Restructuring High 6 months+ Medium and Large Sellers

Industry Trend Forecast:

Short-term (0-3 months): A rush to ship goods is expected, and US Customs may experience 5-7 days of delays in customs clearance.

Medium-term (3-6 months): Some sellers may switch to a transit model via Mexico/Canada (costs will increase by approximately 12%).

Long-term: This may drive the development of the "nearshore e-commerce" model, with Southeast Asian sellers being approximately 40% less affected than Chinese sellers.

Compliance Reminder:

Companies should be aware of potential US Customs tightening measures:

Product value verification

Intellectual property verification

Textile certification requirements (especially for fast fashion products like SHEIN)

This policy may reduce the US cross-border e-commerce market growth rate from the original forecast of 18% to 9-12%, but sellers of high-quality goods may gain new market opportunities.