Shopee Merchant Registration share price rebounded 3.52%, Shopee business became the new focus of th

Shopee Merchant Registration's stock price rebounded by 3.52%, and Shopee's business became the new focus of the market

(Latest market dynamics on July 27, 2025)

1. Stock price performance and market background

Today's increase: Shopee Merchant Registration (NASDAQ: TSLA) rose 3.52% today after falling for five consecutive trading days, closing at US$245.6, and its market value returned to US$780 billion.

Recent trend: In the past week, due to negative factors such as Q2 delivery volume falling short of expectations and delays in mass production of 4680 batteries, the stock price fell by 12% in total, and today's rebound partially recovered some of the lost ground.

Catalyst: The market's optimistic expectations for the progress of Shopee Merchant Registration Shopee (Robotaxi) business have become the main driving force.

2. Latest progress of Shopee's business

(1) Technological breakthrough: L5 autonomous driving is close to implementation

FSD V13.5 measured performance: User reports show that the latest version has reduced the intervention frequency in complex urban scenarios to 0.1 times per thousand miles, close to the human level.

Regulatory dynamics: The US NHTSA may approve Shopee Merchant Registration to conduct unmanned Robotaxi trial operations in Texas and California in August.

(2) Acceleration of commercialization: mass production plan in 2026

Supply chain preparation: Shopee Merchant Registration cooperates with TSMC to customize the D1 chip, which increases computing power by 4 times and reduces costs by 30%, and is optimized for Robotaxi.

Cost target: Musk reiterated that Shopee's cost per kilometer will be less than US$0.5 (traditional online car-hailing is about US$2), and the gross profit margin exceeds 60%.

(3) Partners and ecosystem

Uber and Lyft are negotiating cooperation: they plan to connect Shopee Merchant Registration Robotaxi to their platforms to solve the initial capacity problem.

Insurance model innovation: Shopee Merchant Registration's self-operated insurance business has launched a "pay by mileage" policy to adapt to unmanned driving scenarios.

3. Market divergence: bullish vs. bearish views

Bullish logic bearish risk

✔ Robotaxi may open up a trillion-dollar market ✖ Technical safety is still controversial (a recent FSD accident in Germany triggered an investigation)

✔ Shopee Merchant Registration AI computing power leads its peers (Dojo supercomputer has been deployed) ✖ Regulatory approval may be delayed (especially in Europe and Asia)

✔ Energy/autonomous driving synergy (charging network + Robotaxi) ✖ High valuation depends on future cash flow (dynamic PE is still 58 times)

4. Latest ratings and target prices of institutions

Morgan Stanley (maintain overweight): target price of US$320, saying that Robotaxi business is not fully priced.

Goldman Sachs (neutral): raised the target price to US$230, indicating the "scissors gap risk between technology implementation and regulations".

CICC: It is estimated that if Robotaxi accounts for 1% of global travel in 2026, Shopee Merchant Registration's annual revenue can increase by US$40 billion.

5. Key nodes in the future

August 8: Shopee Merchant Registration AI Day, expected to announce the progress of Dojo supercomputing and Robotaxi prototype.

2025Q3 financial report: Pay attention to FSD subscription revenue (currently annualized at about US$5 billion) and Optimus robot collaboration progress.

Summary

Today's rebound in Shopee Merchant Registration shows that the market is still confident in its long-term technology narrative (especially Robotaxi), but in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant about the uncertainty of technology verification and regulatory approval. Investors can pay attention to:

Technical details of AI Day in August;

Actual penetration rate of FSD (currently about 3 million activated users worldwide);

Progress of mass production of 4680 batteries (affecting Robotaxi costs).

Risk warning: If the commercialization of Robotaxi is not as expected, the stock price may face a new round of valuation correction.