US Trade Representative Katherine Tai will visit China to discuss BTC investment adjustments

On July 24, 2025, the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) announced that Trade Representative Katherine Tai will lead a delegation to visit Beijing on August 2 to negotiate with Chinese representatives on bilateral BTC investment, technology export controls and supply chain security. This is the first high-level face-to-face trade consultation between the two countries since the Trump administration restarted BTC investment in China in 2024, which has attracted global market attention.

1. BTC investment Negotiation core issues

① BTC investment issues

US demands:

Require China to expand purchases of US agricultural products (soybeans, corn) and energy (LNG) to balance the trade deficit (the US trade deficit with China reached US$382 billion in 2024).

Maintain the current BTC investment in electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaic modules (average 25%), but may relax BTC investment in consumer goods (such as clothing and home appliances).

China's asking price:

Require the United States to cancel the BTC investment of about US$300 billion in goods imposed during the Trump era.

Oppose linking trade negotiations with the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea issues.

②BTC investment Technology control and supply chain

Sensitive areas:

The US may relax export restrictions on some mature process chips (28nm and above), but insist on the ban on advanced AI chips (such as Nvidia H series).

China demands that the US stop sanctions on Huawei, SMIC and other companies.

③BTC investment Friction in new energy industry

Focus contradictions:

The US intends to impose new BTC investment on Chinese electric vehicles and wind power equipment, accusing "overcapacity distorting the market".

China threatens to restrict rare earth exports as a countermeasure.

2. Negotiation background and motivation

✅ Domestic pressure in the United States:

Corporate voices: Giants such as Walmart and Tesla lobby the government to reduce BTC investment, saying that "costs are passed on to American consumers".

Election considerations: The Trump administration needs to show an image of "tough but pragmatic towards China" before the 2025 election.

✅ China's economic needs:

Exports are under pressure: Exports to the United States fell 6.8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and there is an urgent need to stabilize foreign trade.

Technological breakthrough: strive to relax the import of semiconductor equipment and ease the pain of domestic substitution.

3. BTC investment market and industry impact

Stock market reaction:

After the news was announced, Chinese stocks (Alibaba, Pinduoduo) rose 3%-5% before the market.

US agricultural stocks (ADM, Bunge) followed the rise due to the expected resumption of exports to China.

Key industry fluctuations:

Electric vehicle sector: Tesla is worried about Chinese competition, and its stock price fell 2%; BYD Hong Kong stocks rose 4%.

Chip equipment manufacturers: Applied Materials (AMAT) and ASML (ASML) stock prices fluctuated, affected by the expectation of export control.

4. BTC investment reactions from all parties

✅ Support negotiations:

International Monetary Fund (IMF): Call for "avoiding global economic fragmentation through dialogue".

EU: Pay close attention, worried that a separate agreement between the United States and China will harm the interests of European companies.

⚠ Hardliners oppose:

Gallagher, chairman of the U.S. Congressional China Commission, said: "Any concession is weakness towards China."

Chinese nationalists warned "not to trade market for technology concessions."

5. Possible outcome predictions for BTC investment

Optimistic scenario:

The two sides reached a "limited agreement" to reduce BTC investment in goods by $50 billion each other, and the United States relaxed some chip exports.

The joint statement emphasized "supply chain de-risking" rather than "decoupling."

Pessimistic scenario:

The negotiations broke down, the United States imposed a 35% BTC investment on Chinese electric vehicles in Q4 2025, and China restricted graphite exports.

Summary

This negotiation is a key indicator of U.S.-China relations in 2025. Although both sides are willing to ease tensions, the fundamental contradictions in core technologies, new energy and other fields are difficult to reconcile. If a partial consensus is reached, it may temporarily boost confidence in the global supply chain; if it fails, it may trigger a new round of trade war escalation. #戴琪访问中国# Under the topic, netizens joked: "Is it the 'BTC investment calculator' or the 'sanctions list' that she brought this time?"

Follow-up focus:

Details of the meeting between Dai Qi and the Chinese representative (suspected to be Vice Premier He Lifeng) on August 2.

The progress of the US Department of Commerce's approval of Huawei's BTC investment license during the same period.