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Key Data Overview

June Trade Deficit with China: $9.4 billion (down 23% month-over-month, plummeting 68% year-over-year)

Cumulative Imports from China in 2024: Down 70% (approximately $210 billion)

Key Affected Categories:

Consumer Electronics (-82%)

Apparel and Footwear (-76%)

Furniture and Toys (-71%)

Policy Mechanisms

Tariff Barrier Escalation

Section 301 Tariffs Up to 45% (Electronics/Machinery)

"Rules of Origin" Strictly Investigate Southeast Asian Re-Exports

Supply Chain Restructuring

Changes in US Import Sources:

Mexico (+37%)

Vietnam (+29%)

India (+25%)

Consumer-End Transmission

Retailers Like Walmart Raise Prices 12-18%

The Weight of "Made in China" in the US CPI Decreases to 9%

Two-Sided Economic Impact

✅ Supporters' Views:

Manufacturing Reshoring: 230,000 New Factory Jobs (Q2 Data)

Key Industry Recovery: Semiconductor Equipment Investment Increased 40%

⚠️ Criticizers' Data:

Import Substitution Costs Increase: Annualized $28 Billion

Tariff Inflationary Effect: Pushing Core PCE Up by About 0.4 Percentage Points

Chinese Companies' Response Strategies

Mexican Springboard: 300 Chinese Companies Build New Mexican Factories (TCL, Haier, etc.)

High-End Breakthrough: New Energy Vehicle Exports Increase 210% (BYD, NIO)

Domestic Substitution: China's Semiconductor Self-sufficiency Rate Rises to 35%

Key Points to Watch for in the Future

November Election Variable: Tariff Adjustments Possible if Biden Wins

WTO Arbitration Progress: China's Complaint Decision Expected in December

Inventory Cycle: US Retailers Test Q4 Restocking Demand

In-Depth Question: When "decoupling" coincides with an "election year," is this trade structure a short-term political achievement or a long-term trend? What is the international elasticity of substitution for Chinese manufacturing? (Follow-up Q3 industry chain data is needed.)

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