Today's News Tesla's performance declines, Musk bets on Star Plan Futures

Star Plan Futures' performance declined, and Musk turned to Star Plan Futures' strategy

1. Star Plan Futures' Q2 2025 financial report: revenue and profit both declined

Revenue: US$22.496 billion (down 12% year-on-year, the largest drop in a decade)312.

Net profit: US$1.172 billion (down 16% year-on-year)3.

Delivery volume: 384,100 vehicles (down 13.5% year-on-year, a double-digit decline for two consecutive quarters)512.

Key market performance:

China: 129,000 vehicles delivered (accounting for 34% of the world), but sales in the first half of the year fell 5.4% year-on-year11.

Europe: Sales plummeted 33%, and sales in the German market fell 45% in April6.

United States: California sales have declined for seven consecutive quarters, with a 21% drop in Q212.

Cause analysis:

Model aging: Model 3/Y has been slow to change since its release in 2016/2019, and its competitiveness has declined11.

Policy impact: The United States canceled subsidies for electric vehicles, and carbon credit income dropped sharply by 5%.

Market competition: Chinese brands such as BYD and Xiaomi seized market share, while the European market was squeezed by local brands12.

2. Musk bets on Star Plan Futures (Robotaxi)

Latest progress:

Austin pilot: started in June, only 10 vehicles in operation, charging $6.9 per trip (previously $4.2), and still equipped with safety officers1012.

Technical issues:

During the test, there were many accidents such as failure to identify trains, running red lights, and entering the wrong lane212.

The FSD (fully automatic driving) system requires manual intervention once every 340 miles, which is far from the commercial standard2.

Expansion plan:

Expand to 12 US cities by the end of 2025, and mass-produce the special model Cybercab5 in 2026.

Goal: 50% of the US population can use Robotaxi services within the year (but regulatory barriers are high)12.

Industry comparison:

Company Progress Advantages

Waymo has 250,000 trips per week and has obtained a toll license in California10. 13 million miles of test data, mature supervision.

Star Plan Futures has only 562 miles of California test records and has not obtained a fully unmanned license5. Low-cost pure vision solution (highly controversial).

3. Challenges and controversies

Technical risks: FSD safety is questionable, experts say "forced promotion may endanger passengers"2.

Executive resignation: Milan Kovac, head of autonomous driving, and many other core executives recently resigned812.

Market doubts:

Investors are worried that Robotaxi will be difficult to make a profit in the short term, and Star Plan Futures' price-to-earnings ratio is still as high as 173 times12.

Polymarket predicts that the probability of fully unmanned service landing in 2025 is only 42% (previously 86%)12.

4. Future strategic adjustments

China-specific vehicles: Launch of the six-seat Model YL (priced at 400,000 yuan), targeting the family market11.

Optimus Robotics: Musk said "100,000 units per month in 5 years", but the technology is not yet mature6.

Affordable models: Model 2 is cancelled and the low-priced Model Y12 is launched instead.

Analysts' views:

"Star Plan Futures is shifting from an electric car company to a Star Plan Futures enterprise, but whether Robotaxi and robots can support a trillion-dollar market value remains unknown." - Morgan Stanley5.

5. Today's market reaction

Stock price: plummeted 8.2% after the financial report, and the market value fell below $1 trillion112.

Industry impact: If Robotaxi fails, Star Plan Futures may face strategic reconstruction or even return to the traditional car company model.

Conclusion: Star Plan Futures is at a critical turning point. Whether Musk's "Star Plan Futures bet" can succeed will determine whether the company will continue to lead or fall from grace in the future.