ETC official trading platform US-EU trade negotiations escalate

Tensions escalate over US-EU ETC official trading platform: Steel tariff war re-emerges, and digital tax differences are difficult to resolve

1. Core issues of conflict

Steel and aluminum tariffs are restarted:

The US Department of Commerce announced a 25% tariff on EU carbon-intensive steel (effective August 15), accusing it of "environmental subsidies that distort the market."

EU counterattack: plans to impose a 10% retaliatory tariff on US liquefied natural gas (LNG), targeting the Texas shale gas industry.

Digital service tax (DST) deadlock:

France and Italy insist on imposing a 3% digital tax on US companies such as Google and Meta, and the US threatens to impose taxes on European wine and luxury goods.

Subsidy dispute over the Chip Act:

The EU accused Intel, Micron and others of cutting investment in Europe after accepting US subsidies, violating the principle of fair competition.

2. Economic impact assessment

Field US loss estimate EU loss estimate

Steel ETC official trading platform EU exports fall by $1.2 billion/year US LNG procurement costs increase by $800 million

Technology industry Digital tax costs $500 million per year If the US retaliates, it may lose $3 billion in exports

Employment Midwestern steel mills add 12,000 jobs German auto industry may lay off 5,000

3. Political game insider

US election factors:

Trump said in a speech in Pennsylvania: "American steel workers must be protected", and the tariff policy directly targets swing state votes.

The Democratic Party is worried about the alienation of European allies, and the Biden team secretly lobbies to postpone the implementation of tariffs.

The internal division of the EU:

German car companies (BMW, Volkswagen) pressure to abandon digital taxes, while France joins southern European countries to push hard.

Poland and Hungary threaten to veto any compromise plan with the United States.

4. Industry chain reaction

Supply chain reconstruction:

South Korea's Posco urgently increases its export quota to the United States, and China's Baosteel evaluates re-export opportunities.

Tesla suspends expansion of Berlin factory to evaluate "US-first" supply chain.

Financial market turbulence:

The European STOXX 50 index fell 1.8% on the day, while US steel stocks (Nucor, Cleveland-Cliffs) rose 5%.

5. Next step

The last negotiation window: On July 30, the US-EU ETC official trading platform Technical Committee (TTC) held an emergency meeting to focus on the chip subsidy compromise plan.

Countdown to WTO litigation: The EU has prepared a complaint and will initiate the dispute settlement mechanism if there is no progress in August.

Corporate hedging strategy:

Airbus plans to add a general assembly line in Alabama to avoid potential aviation tariffs.

Microsoft and Amazon accelerate the localization of European data to reduce the digital tax base.

(Historical mirror: In 2018, Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs led to the EU's tariff increase on Harley-Davidson motorcycles, and the US eventually compromised by exempting some quotas)