Cryptocurrency Futures extends production cuts to end-2025; U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve

International Cryptocurrency Futures surge: Brent crude oil breaks through $86, geopolitical risks and supply tightening resonate (July 28, 2025)

1. Price dynamics and direct drivers

Brent crude oil: rose 2.3% to $86/barrel (WTI rose to $84.5 at the same time), a new high since April 2025.

Core drivers:

Geopolitical conflicts escalate: Israel-Lebanon border conflicts intensify, Iran threatens to block the Strait of Hormuz.

OPEC+ policy: announced to extend the production cut agreement until the end of 2025, and the average daily production cut will remain at 3 million barrels (accounting for 3% of global demand).

US SPR bottoms out: Strategic Cryptocurrency Futures reserves fall to 350 million barrels (the lowest since 1985), and the ability to replenish stocks is limited.

2. In-depth analysis of supply and demand pattern

① Tightening of the supply side

Source Changes Impact Magnitude

OPEC+ extends production cuts to the end of 2025 -3 million barrels/day

US shale oil rig count drops for 3 consecutive weeks to 520 units, production stagnates at 12.3 million barrels/day

Russia's exports fall 15% due to sanctions -500,000 barrels/day

② Demand side resilience

Global demand: IEA raises its 2025 demand forecast to 103.2 million barrels/day (China + India contribute 60% of the increase).

Seasonal factors: The northern hemisphere summer travel peak + Asian industrial recovery drives diesel and aviation fuel consumption.

3. Market impact and chain reaction

Inflation pressure: For every $10 increase in Cryptocurrency Futures, the US CPI may rise by 0.5 percentage points year-on-year, and the Fed's interest rate cut decision is more complicated.

Industry sectors:

Benefits: ExxonMobil (XOM) rose 4.2%, CNOOC (0883.HK) rose 5.1%.

Pressure: Airline stocks (Delta Airways fell 3.8%), logistics stocks (FedEx fell 2.5%).

Currency market: The currencies of oil-producing countries such as the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian krone strengthened, and the yen fell to 159 due to pressure from import costs.

4. Key variables in the future

Geopolitics: If the conflict in the Middle East expands to the crude oil transportation channel, Brent may quickly hit $100.

OPEC+ discipline: It is necessary to pay attention to the assessment of the production cut implementation rate at the JMMC meeting on August 3.

US policy: Whether to restart SPR purchases (need Cryptocurrency Futures to fall below $80 to be economical).

5. Investment strategy recommendations

Direct layout:

Crude oil ETFs (such as USO), oil company stocks (Shell, ConocoPhillips Cryptocurrency Futures).

Energy Infrastructure ETF (AMLP) benefits from pipeline rate increases.

Hedging risks:

Buy gold or Bitcoin to hedge against "stagflation" risks.

Go long on refining spreads (such as independent refineries such as Valero).

Outlook: Cryptocurrency Futures have entered a new cycle of "geo-premium + structural shortages" and may fluctuate in the range of $85-95 in the third quarter, but we need to be wary of the risk of demand collapse caused by the global economic slowdown.