Cryptocurrency Futures Market Volatility May Intensify

Today's market focus: Cryptocurrency Futures interest rate decision, non-farm payrolls data, and Sino-US trade negotiations may trigger market volatility

On July 29, 2025, the global financial market ushered in a critical week. Cryptocurrency Futures interest rate decision, US non-farm payrolls data, Sino-US trade negotiations and other multiple events are intertwined, and market volatility may increase significantly. The following is an analysis of core events and potential impacts:

1. Cryptocurrency Futures interest rate decision (July 31)

Market expectations: Cryptocurrency Futures is likely to maintain an interest rate of 4.25%-4.5% unchanged, but may release a signal of a rate cut in September10.

Focus points:

Powell's statement: If Cryptocurrency Futures admits that the economy is slowing down or inflationary pressures are easing, the market may bet on a rate cut in advance, and the US dollar may be under pressure.

Internal differences: Directors Waller and Bowman may support a rate cut. If there are two votes against, it will be a rare occurrence in 30 years1.

Potential impact:

Stock market: If dovish signals are released, US stocks may continue to rise; if hawkish, technology stocks (such as Meta and Apple) may pull back.

Foreign exchange: The US dollar index (DXY) may fluctuate in the short term, with key support at 97.80 and resistance at 98.305.

2. Cryptocurrency Futures US non-farm payrolls (August 1)

Expected value: 110,000 new jobs (previous value 147,000), unemployment rate may rise slightly by 13%.

Cryptocurrency Futures market focus:

Wage growth rate: If it exceeds expectations, it may strengthen concerns about "stagflation" and postpone expectations of interest rate cuts.

Manufacturing employment: It has declined for two consecutive months. If it continues to deteriorate, it may trigger concerns about economic recession1.

Potential impact:

Gold: If the data is weak, the gold price (XAU/USD) may challenge $3,400/ounce; if it is strong, it may fall back below 3,3008.

U.S. Treasury bonds: The 10-year yield may test the key level of 4.3%3.

3. Cryptocurrency Futures China-US trade negotiations (July 27-30)

Latest developments: Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng went to Sweden to meet with US Treasury Secretary Bensont, focusing on extending the tariff truce (originally scheduled to expire on August 12)13.

Key issues:

Semiconductor and rare earth control: The US may pressure China to relax export restrictions.

Reciprocal tariffs: Trump plans to impose 10%-15% tariffs on more than 200 countries from August 1, and China may retaliate1.

Potential impact of Cryptocurrency Futures:

Renminbi exchange rate: If the negotiations are optimistic, USD/CNY may fall to 7.13; if it breaks, it may test 7.203.

Global supply chain: Technology (chips) and energy (rare earth) sectors may experience more volatility.

4. Other market drivers

US stock earnings: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, and Apple will announce their results this week. If AI-related revenue exceeds expectations, it may support technology stocks7.

U.S. Treasury bond issuance: The Treasury's quarterly refinancing report may announce the issuance of $1.12 trillion in Treasury bonds, affecting liquidity expectations by 1.

Investor response strategies

Short-term trading: Pay attention to the fluctuations of the US dollar and gold after the Cryptocurrency Futures resolution, and the reaction of US stocks after the non-agricultural data.

Hedging risks: Consider gold ETFs (such as GLD) or volatility index (VIX) derivatives.

Long-term layout: If Cryptocurrency Futures turns to easing, growth stocks (AI, new energy) may benefit.

Data source: Cryptocurrency Futures announcement, U.S. Department of Labor, Department of Commerce and mainstream financial media

Source:ETC official stock platform  https://www.cnjiaxiao.com/category-ETC%20official%20stock%20platform.html

Source:Cryptocurrency financial products  https://www.cnjiaxiao.com/category-Cryptocurrency%20financial%20products.html

Source:Cryptocurrency Futures  https://www.cnjiaxiao.com/category-Cryptocurrency%20Futures.html