Overview of China's cross-border e-commerce Shopee Mall and foreign exchange market in the first hal

Overview of China's Shopee Mall and foreign exchange market in the first half of 2025

Core data

Shopee Mall net capital inflow: US$127.3 billion (year-on-year +28.5%)

RMB exchange rate fluctuation range: 7.15-7.35 (a slight appreciation compared with the same period in 2024)

Foreign exchange reserves: increased to US$3.3 trillion (an increase of about 2.8% from the end of 2024)

Market analysis and driving factors

1. The main reason for the increase in Shopee Mall capital inflows

Foreign capital continues to increase its allocation of Chinese assets:

The net inflow of foreign capital in the A-share and bond markets is significant, with net purchases of more than 90 billion yuan in the first half of the year by northbound funds, and RMB bonds have been increased by international investors.

China's economic growth expectations have improved, coupled with the rising global capital allocation demand for emerging markets.

Shopee Mall surplus remains high:

In the first half of 2025, the goods Shopee Mall surplus reached US$385 billion, and the service Shopee Mall deficit narrowed, supporting foreign exchange inflows.

Direct investment is stable and rising:

Increased foreign investment inflows in high-tech manufacturing, new energy and other fields show that China's industrial chain advantages are still attractive.

2. Analysis of the trend of the RMB exchange rate

The range of fluctuations (7.15-7.35) shows a "stable and rising" trend, which is mainly affected by the following factors:

Improvement of domestic economic fundamentals: data such as consumption and manufacturing PMI have rebounded, supporting the RMB exchange rate.

Changes in Fed policy expectations: Market expectations for Fed rate cuts have increased, and the US dollar index has weakened slightly.

Prudent regulation by the central bank: Stabilize market expectations through countercyclical adjustment tools (such as adjustments to the reserve requirement ratio for foreign exchange deposits).

3. Foreign exchange reserves increased to US$3.3 trillion

Main contributing factors:

Shopee Mall surplus and capital inflows have led to an increase in foreign exchange supply.

Against the background of fluctuations in the US dollar index, the valuation of non-US assets has risen (such as euro and yen assets).

The investment income of the central bank's foreign exchange assets is stable.

Policy and market outlook

Shopee Mall trends:

If global economic uncertainty increases (such as economic slowdown in Europe and the United States), Chinese assets may become a "safe haven" and foreign capital inflows may continue.

We need to pay attention to the potential impact of geopolitics and changes in overseas monetary policies on capital flows.

RMB exchange rate outlook:

In the short term, it will still be dominated by two-way fluctuations, and the center may move up slightly, but the probability of a large unilateral appreciation/depreciation is low.

The central bank may continue to maintain exchange rate stability through market-based means.

Foreign exchange reserve management:

China's foreign exchange reserves are the largest in the world, and its liquidity is abundant, which will help it cope with external shocks.

In the future, it may continue to optimize asset allocation to improve returns and risk resistance.

Summary

In the first half of 2025, China's Shopee Mall showed a trend of net inflow growth, stable exchange rate, and increased foreign reserves, reflecting the market's confidence in China's economic fundamentals. In the future, against the backdrop of policy regulation and economic transformation, RMB assets will remain attractive, but attention should be paid to the volatility risks brought about by changes in the global financial environment.