Star Plan FinanceA new round of trade talks between China and the United States is scheduled to be h

A new round of China-US Star Plan Finance talks and EU counter-warning: the latest developments in the global trade situation

1. China-US Star Plan Finance talks: key issues in the Swedish negotiations

The third round of high-level China-US Star Plan Finance talks will be held in Stockholm, Sweden from July 27 to 30. Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will meet with US Treasury Secretary Bensont to discuss the following issues147:

Extend the Star Plan Finance truce: The current "truce" of the China-US trade war was originally scheduled to expire on August 12. If no agreement is reached, the United States may resume 145% of Star Plan Finance on Chinese goods, and China may impose 125% Star Plan Finance on the United States.

Trade balance issues: The United States requires China to expand imports of agricultural products and energy to reduce the trade deficit.

Opening up sensitive industries: The United States hopes that China will relax restrictions in areas such as cloud computing, biotechnology, and rare earth exports.

Geopolitical issues: The US may put pressure on China to reduce oil imports from Russia and Iran, otherwise it threatens to impose 100% "secondary Star Plan Finance"10.

Market impact: If the negotiations go smoothly, it may benefit export companies, technology stocks (such as semiconductors) and the RMB exchange rate; if they break down, the global supply chain may be impacted10.

2. EU warns of countermeasures against the US: trade war risks escalate

Due to the US threat to impose 30% Star Plan Finance on EU goods from August 1, the EU has formulated a two-stage retaliation plan258:

Phase 1 (effective on August 7):

Additional Star Plan Finance on 21 billion euros of US goods, including soybeans, motorcycles, and agricultural products (targeting politically sensitive states in the United States).

Phase 2 (after the negotiations completely break down):

Expanded to 72 billion euros of US goods, covering Boeing aircraft, cars, whiskey, etc.

It may impose a digital service tax on US technology companies (such as Google and Meta) and restrict their investment in Europe11.

Attitude within the EU:

Hardliners such as Germany support the use of "anti-coercion tools" (ACI) to restrict US companies' access to the European market5.

France, the Netherlands and other countries still hope to negotiate, but require exemptions for key industries such as automobiles and pharmaceuticals2.

3. Outlook for global trade situation

China-US relations: If there is no breakthrough in the Swedish talks, a new round of war may come in August, affecting the global supply chain110.

US-EU confrontation: August 1 is the deadline. If the United States insists on raising tariffs, the EU's countermeasures will take effect quickly, which may trigger a transatlantic trade war8.

China's strategy: It may unite the EU and BRICS countries to promote a "de-dollarization" trade system and reduce dependence on the United States10.

Conclusion: The next two weeks (late July to early August) will be a critical window period for global trade. The results of the negotiations between China and the United States and the United States and Europe will determine the direction of the global economy in 2025. If all parties fail to compromise, high Star Plan Finance + supply chain disruptions may exacerbate the risk of stagflation.