Shopee URL Shopee official website Shopee agentsTrump threatens Iran with 'unconditional surrender'

Shopee USA Shopee USA official website Shopee USA URL Shopee USA recruitment Shopee USA franchise Shopee USA agents Shopee USA onboarding Shopee Enterprise Edition

Trump's Threat of "Unconditional Surrender" to Iran: The Strategy and Risks Behind His Tough Statement

1. The Core Content of Trump's Remarks

Direct Warning: On June 17, Trump addressed Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei, either on social media or in public (the specific occasion needs to be verified), stating that "America knows your location" (implying a decapitation capability) and demanding Iran's "unconditional surrender."

Basis for the Threat: Invoking the "Suleimani precedent," the 2020 US drone strike that killed an Iranian Revolutionary Guard commander, as a demonstration of his commitment to "maximum pressure."

Triggering Condition: Clearly stating that if Iran attacks US personnel or interests, it will launch an "overwhelming counterattack."

2. Possible Iranian Responses

Official Response:

Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Revolutionary Guard may condemn Trump's "terrorist rhetoric" and emphasize "resistance to the end."

Symbolic military actions (such as military exercises in the Persian Gulf and accelerated uranium enrichment) as a show of strength.

Proxy Armed Operations:

Increase harassment of US/Israeli targets through the Houthis (Yemen) and Hezbollah (Lebanon), but avoid direct war with the US.

Impact of Nuclear Negotiations:

If Biden wins, Iran may delay restoring the Iran nuclear deal, waiting for a Democratic administration to make concessions; if Trump wins, Iran may accelerate its nuclear program for self-defense.

3. Trump's Domestic Political Calculations:

Consolidating the base: Republican voters strongly support a tough stance on Iran, and this move could boost conservative voter turnout.

Comparing with Biden's policies: Criticize the Biden administration for being "soft on Iran" (e.g., attempting to unfreeze $6 billion in Iranian oil funds) and portray itself as "the only deterrent against Iran."

Shifting domestic focus: If pre-election economic data is poor, a diplomatic crisis could divert public attention.

4. International Concerns: Uncertainty among regional allies:

While Israel welcomes pressure on Iran, it fears that a spiral of uncontrolled activity could impact its own territory.

Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE fear being drawn into a direct conflict between the US and Iran, potentially undermining their economic transformation plans (such as "Vision 2030").

China and Russia's Positions:

China may call for restraint and emphasize a "political solution"; Russia may seize the opportunity to deepen military cooperation with Iran (such as providing the S-400 air defense system).

Europe's Dilemma:

Britain, France, Germany, and other countries still hope to salvage the Iran nuclear deal, and Trump's remarks will exacerbate transatlantic policy differences.

5. Military Conflict Risk Analysis

Low-Probability but High-Risk Scenario:

If Iran misjudges US red lines (such as attacking US military bases in the Middle East), it could trigger what Trump calls a "devastating strike" (see the 2019 Gulf of Oman crisis).

Oil prices could soar to $150 per barrel, triggering a global inflation crisis.

Trump's Decision-Making Style:

He prefers "shock and awe tactics" but lacks a coherent strategy (such as the sudden cancellation of air strikes against Iran after threatening them in 2018).

6. Conclusion: A Dangerous Election-Year Gamble

Trump's rhetoric is both a campaign strategy and a form of "psychological warfare" against Iran. In the short term, Iran may restrain its response to avoid boosting Trump's reelection chances. However, in the long term:

If Trump is re-elected, his demand for "unconditional surrender" will lead to a stalemate and could even force Iran to pursue nuclear weapons.

If Biden is re-elected, Iran may wait for a policy adjustment, but attacks by regional proxy forces (such as the Houthis) will be difficult to halt.

Key observations: Whether Iran conducts provocative provocations (such as seizing oil tankers or attacking US troops in Iraq) within the next 60 days, and whether Trump will seize the opportunity to escalate his "October Surprise" attempt to influence the election.