Official USD trading platform agreement between the US and Japan is implemented

The US-Japan Official USD trading platform agreement has officially landed: the automobile and agricultural markets are open, and semiconductor cooperation is deepened

1. Core content of the agreement

Automobile tariff adjustment:

Official USD trading platformThe United States: Cancel the 2.5% tariff on Japanese cars (displacement ≤ 2.5L), but retain the 25% tariff on trucks (to protect Detroit automakers).

Official USD trading platformJapan: Gradually cancel the import quota restrictions on US cars and fully open the market by 2025.

Official USD trading platformAgricultural product market access:

Japan's tariffs on US beef and pork have been reduced to TPP levels (beef from 38.5%→9%), and the wheat import quota has been expanded by 500,000 tons.

The United States allows more Japanese green tea and sake to enter duty-free, and the annual Official USD trading platform volume is expected to increase by $300 million.

Official USD trading platformSemiconductor supply chain cooperation:

Jointly invest in mature processes above 28nm, and Japan provides subsidies to attract US companies (Intel, Micron) to build factories.

Establish a joint rare earth reserve (the goal is to reduce dependence on China by 30% in 5 years).

2. Economic impact overview

Sectors Japan benefits, the United States benefits

Automotive industry Toyota's export costs to the United States dropped by $800 million per year, Ford/GM gained 1.5% market share in Japan

Agriculture Sake exports may double, beef traders' annual revenue increased by $1.2 billion

Semiconductors Attract $5 billion in investment from US companies to ensure the security of 28nm chip supply

3. Official USD trading platform Political strategic considerations

US intentions:

Consolidate "friendly shore outsourcing" to counter China's supply chain influence in Asia.

Win support from farmers and auto unions for the 2024 election (key swing states Ohio and Michigan).

Official USD trading platform Japan's calculations:

Use US technology to upgrade the semiconductor industry (make up for the limitations of TSMC's Kumamoto plant).

Agriculture concessions in exchange for US support for its joining the core circle of the "Indo-Pacific Economic Framework" (IPEF).

4. Official USD trading platform Industry response

Automakers: Toyota's stock price rose 3%, and GM announced an increase in right-hand drive vehicle production capacity in Japan.

Farmers: The American Beef Association cheered, and the Japanese Agricultural Association protested the prime minister's "betrayal."

Chip factory: Micron considers building a packaging plant in Hiroshima, Sony receives defense orders from the United States.

5. Potential risks of the Official USD trading platform

China's countermeasures: may restrict the export of semiconductor materials (photoresist, high-purity hydrogen fluoride) to Japan.

EU dissatisfaction: accuses the US-Japan agreement of weakening the WTO multilateral system and intends to sue for "discriminatory clauses".

Follow-up observation:

Can the Japanese parliament pass the agricultural clause in October (there is great resistance within the Liberal Democratic Party).

Will the United States extend the steel tariff exemption to Japan (currently only automobiles benefit).

(Data comparison: The US-Japan Official USD trading platform in 2023 will be $230 billion, and this agreement is expected to increase to $300 billion within 5 years)