Oil will peak between 2025 and 2030 (forecast by IEA, BP and other institutions)

1. Current oil consumption trends

According to data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the average daily global oil consumption in 2024 has reached 102 million barrels, a record high.

Growth drivers:

Recovery of air travel (surge in demand for jet fuel)

Strong industrial and transportation demand in emerging markets (India, Southeast Asia)

Continued growth in demand for petrochemical raw materials (plastics, fertilizers, etc.)

2. Controversy over peak demand

Viewpoint 1: Peak in 2025-2030 (forecasts by IEA, BP, etc.)

Electric vehicle (EV) penetration rate accelerates (China and Europe account for more than 20% of the market)

Carbon neutrality policies of various countries suppress demand for fossil fuels (such as EU carbon tariffs)

Energy efficiency improvement (energy-saving technologies in industry and transportation)

Viewpoint 2: Peak after 2040 (forecasts by OPEC, ExxonMobil, etc.)

Economic growth in developing countries still depends on oil (infrastructure demand in Africa and South Asia)

Slow decarbonization of shipping and aviation (limited promotion of alternative fuels such as SAF)

Demand resilience in the petrochemical industry (global plastics consumption increases by 3%-4% annually)

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3. Impact of key variables

Policy strength: If the global carbon price exceeds $100/ton, it may accelerate the decline in demand

Technological breakthroughs: If the commercialization of green hydrogen, solid-state batteries, etc. accelerates, it may subvert the oil demand curve

Geopolitical conflicts: Long-term high prices (such as oil prices > $100) may force energy transformation

4. Future outlook

Short term (2025-2030): Oil demand will still grow moderately (annual average of 0.5%-1%), but structural differentiation will intensify (jet fuel and petrochemical demand will increase, and gasoline consumption will peak). In the long run, oil consumption may enter a "plateau period" rather than a sharp drop, but the peak time still depends on the game between technology, policy and market.