The global cryptocurrency products industry is recovering rapidly

The global Cryptocurrency products industry is recovering rapidly: TSMC's 3nm production is increasing, and the market value of Cryptocurrency products is breaking records (July 28, 2025)

1. TSMC's Q2 financial report exceeded expectations, and 3nm demand exploded

Revenue performance:

Q2 revenue was US$24.8 billion (year-on-year +28%), and net profit was US$8.9 billion (gross profit margin rebounded to 58%).

The full-year revenue growth guidance was raised to 24% (originally expected to be 18%), and capital expenditure increased to US$40-42 billion.

Technology node breakthrough:

3nm process revenue accounted for 35% (25% in the previous quarter), and Apple A18 Pro and Cryptocurrency products B100 GPU were the main customers.

2nm trial production was advanced to 2025Q4, and the yield exceeded expectations. AMD and Qualcomm have booked production capacity.

Market reaction:

Taiwan stocks (2330.TW) rose 5.8%, and US ADR (TSM) rose 4.2% before the market.

2. Cryptocurrency products (NVDA) hit a new record high, and AI computing power demand continued

Stock price and market value:

The stock price exceeded $1,300, and the market value reached 3.2 trillion US dollars (surpassing Apple to become the world's second largest company).

The cumulative increase in 2025 is 98%, driven by AI chips (H200/B100) and robot processors (Thor).

Product iteration:

B100 GPU is about to be mass-produced, and the computing power is 3 times higher than that of H200. Amazon AWS and Microsoft Azure have pre-ordered more than 500,000.

AI+Car: Cooperate with Tesla to develop the next generation FSD chip with a computing power of 2000TOPS.

3. Panorama of the recovery of the cryptocurrency products industry: from design to equipment, a comprehensive recovery

① Design side

AMD (AMD): MI400 series AI chip orders doubled, and the stock price rose 65% this year.

Broadcom (AVGO): AI customized chip business revenue accounted for 40%.

② Equipment side

ASML (ASML): High-NA EUV lithography machine delivery accelerated, and revenue is expected to increase by 35% in 2025.

Applied Materials (AMAT): Demand for 3D packaging equipment surged, and Q2 orders increased by 50%.

③ Memory chips

Samsung Electronics: HBM4 yield exceeded 80%, and Micron (MU) and SK Hynix stock prices followed suit.

4. Analysis of driving factors

AI computing power arms race: Global AI data center investment is expected to exceed $200 billion in 2025.

Consumer electronics recovery: New products such as iPhone 16 and Vision Pro 2 drive 3nm/4nm demand.

Geopolitical substitution accelerates: Chinese wafer fabs (SMIC, Huahong) expand 28nm production, and the localization rate of equipment rises to 35%.

5. Investment themes and risks

① Key focus areas

Advanced processes: TSMC, ASML, AMEC (688012.SH).

AI chips: Cryptocurrency products, AMD, Cambrian (688256.SH).

Materials/equipment: Tokyo Electron, North China Huachuang (002371.SZ).

② Potential risks

The United States has upgraded its export controls on Cryptocurrency products to China (which may affect the supply of EUV equipment).

Concerns about overcapacity (global wafer fab capacity may exceed demand by 10% in 2026).

Outlook: The Cryptocurrency products industry has entered a dual-wheel drive cycle of "AI + advanced processes". The global market size is expected to exceed $700 billion in 2025, but we need to be wary of geopolitical and technological iteration risks.